How to Calculate Posterior Probability in Email Marketing?
To calculate posterior probability, you generally use Bayes' Theorem. Suppose you want to find the probability that a user will click on a link in your email, given that they have opened it. You would use historical data to establish prior probabilities and then update these with new data from recent campaigns. The formula is: P(A|B) = [P(B|A) * P(A)] / P(B) Where:
P(A|B) is the posterior probability that a user will click the link given that they opened the email. P(B|A) is the likelihood of opening the email if they click the link. P(A) is the prior probability of clicking the link. P(B) is the prior probability of opening the email.